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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-10 22:44:49| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021

Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-08-10 22:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102042 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Kevin is a poorly defined tropical cyclone. A recent scatterometer pass shows a small enclosed low embedded in a larger, elongated cyclonic gyre. This satellite wind data also indicated that the strongest winds associated with the cyclone are located well to the south of the center. Some of this data was questionable, and the wind retrievals greater than 45 kt were in an area of deep convection and likely rain contaminated. However, there were a few believable wind vectors outside of the convection between 40-45 kt, so Kevin's initial intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt, despite the disorganized satellite presentation. The scatterometer data along with surface observations from Clarion Island revealed that the mean center of Kevin is farther to the southwest than previously estimated, and therefore the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/08kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Other than an adjustment to the short-term track based on the shift in the initial position, the latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 18-24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength through tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery continue to suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.1N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-10 22:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 102040 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 65.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.8N 67.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.2N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 75.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 77.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 23.1N 79.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 65.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 14

2021-08-10 22:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 102038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-08-10 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 101449 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI AND THE BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.3N 66.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.5N 68.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.6N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.7N 73.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.7N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N 84.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 63.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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