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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-08-11 22:41:35| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 9

2021-08-11 22:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 112040 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021 During the past several hours, the center of Fred has moved inland over the Dominican Republic. The storm continues to produce an area of convection near and southeast of the center. However, the low-level circulation is losing some organization as it passes over mountainous terrain. There have been no observations near the center recently, so the initial intensity of 35 kt is based mainly on weakening from the previous over water intensity. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/13. Some erratic motion is expected during the next 12 h or so as the center moves over the mountains of Hispaniola. After reaching the water, the cyclone is expected to moves west-northwestward on the south side of the subtropical ridge through about 60 h. After that, a northwestward motion is expected through the end of the forecast period as Fred moves toward a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance becomes a bit divergent during this time, with the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models showing a track near or over the Florida Peninsula, while the GFS, UKMET, and HMON models show the center passing south and west of the Florida Keys, followed by a more northward motion over the Gulf of Mexico. The new forecast track is between these extremes, and it has only minor adjustments from the previous NHC track. Fred is expected to weaken to a depression over Hispaniola during the next 12 h. Once back over water, the cyclone is expected to be in a moderate westerly shear environment through at least 60 h. Due to that, and the uncertainty in how well organized the system will be after crossing Hispaniola, the intensity forecast shows only modest intensification during this time. After that time, the global models forecast that an upper-level trough over Florida will gradually move to the north, with an large upper-level anticyclone following near or to the southeast of Fred. How close this anticyclone gets to Fred will determine how much the shear decreases while the system is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and the global models are not in great agreement on this. The GFS and Canadian keep the high far enough to the east to expose Fred to southwesterly upper-level winds, while the UKMET and ECMWF move it closer to the storm. The intensity forecast will show a slightly faster rate of strengthening after 72 h to match the guidance and the previous forecast. However, there is lower than normal confidence in this part of the intensity forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas this evening, and in portions of Cuba by tonight. 2. Through early Thursday morning, heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and potential mudslides in the Dominican Republic. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola through tonight. 4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Beginning Friday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 18.9N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 12/0600Z 19.8N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1800Z 20.9N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 13/0600Z 21.9N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 22.9N 79.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 23.9N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 25.3N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 28.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Linda Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-08-11 22:37:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 11 2021

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-08-11 16:56:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 111456 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 11 2021 Morning satellite imagery and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation of Fred has become better defined south of the eastern Dominican Republic. The NOAA plane reported maximum flight-level winds of 40-45 kt, and SFMR winds of up to 50 kt, although these were measured near the coast and the reliability is unknown. The central pressure is near 1006 mb. Based on these data and a dropsonde northeast of the center, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The low-level center is partly exposed near the western edge of the convection, which has decreased in coverage since yesterday. The center has been moving more westward for the past few hours. However, the longer term motion is 290/14. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Fred should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as the cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge. The new forecast track is little changed from the previous advisory and lies near the various consensus models. However, some adjustments to the track may be necessary as the center interacts with the mountains of Hispaniola during the next 12-24 hours. Fred is now in an environment of 15-20 kt of westerly vertical shear produced in part by an upper-level trough near the Florida Peninsula, and the global models suggests that moderate shear should persist for at least the next 48-60 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause Fred to weaken as it crosses Hispaniola, and then at best slowly re-intensify after it emerges over the water. After that time, the global models suggest the trough should weaken as a large upper-level anticyclone forms near or just southeast of Fred. This evolution could let the shear decrease a little and allow a little more strengthening, particularly when Fred is over the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across portions of the Dominican Republic. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late today, and in portions of Cuba by tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises and the potential for mudslides in the Dominican Republic. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with possible rapid river rises across southern Florida. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba during the next few days, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since Fred is forecast to interact with Hispaniola today and tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor Fred's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is an increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts in Florida beginning Friday night or early Saturday in the Keys and spreading northward through portions of the Peninsula and the Panhandle Saturday through Monday. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Fred's progress and check updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 18.2N 69.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-11 16:55:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 111455 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC WED AUG 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN... GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS... HOLGUIN...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HAITI...THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRED. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 69.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 69.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.2N 71.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.3N 73.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.4N 76.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.3N 78.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.6N 81.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 27.5N 83.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 69.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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