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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-10 10:44:05| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-10 10:43:34| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-10 04:50:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 074 WTNT41 KNHC 100250 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 The disturbance is now very near the Leeward Islands and it is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of those islands during the next several hours. Satellite and radar data indicate that deep convection continues to gradually organize in curved bands across the northern half of the circulation, but the system still seems to lack a well-defined center. Therefore, the disturbance remains a potential tropical cyclone for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The system is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. The main steering feature for the system will continue to be the subtropical ridge that is situated to its north across the central and western Atlantic. The flow on the south side of the ridge should keep the depression moving relatively briskly to the west-northwest during the next couple of days, taking it across the Leeward Islands overnight, near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and then near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. Beyond that time, the storm is forecast to gradually slow down, when it nears the southwestern portion of the ridge, as it moves near Cuba and the Bahamas late this week. By the weekend, most of the models show the depression reaching a weakness in the ridge, which will likely cause a gradual turn to the right near the Florida Keys or southern Florida. The models are in quite good agreement, especially during the next 3 or 4 days, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus models. Users are reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively. The disturbance is currently in conducive conditions for intensification with the cyclone currently over fairly warm 28 C waters and in low wind shear conditions. The only negative factor for the storm is some dry air in its vicinity. Overall, these environmental factors, and the model guidance, support strengthening during the next 24 hours or so, but the potential land interaction with Puerto Rico could limit the amount of intensification. By Wednesday, the potential land interaction with the mountainous island of Hispaniola and an increase in westerly shear should cause some weakening. However, the environmental conditions could become more favorable for strengthening again by the end of the week, which is the reason why the forecast shows slightly higher wind speeds at those time periods. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA models, which are typically the most skillful aids. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is of low confidence since the cyclone's future strength will be quite dependent on the exact track and the degree of land interaction. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves through the Leeward Islands tonight, and tropical storm conditions are possible there. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 15.1N 60.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-10 04:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100249 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 60.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.2N 63.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.5N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 18.7N 68.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 71.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 74.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 23.4N 79.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 82.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 60.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-10 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection displaced to the southwest of the elongated inner-core wind field due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, some small curved bands of shallow convection have recently developed in the eastern semicircle, suggesting that the shear might be starting to abate somewhat. The initial intensity has been decreased to 40 kt, more in line with earlier ASCAT surface wind data that showed peak surface winds near 40 kt. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/08 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Kevin is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through the 120-h forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the right or north of the previous track, but remains near the southern portion of the track model envelope, between the ECMWF model to the south and the consensus models to the north. Kevin is forecast remain under the influence of at least modest northeasterly to easterly wind shear for the next 48 h. Thus little change in strength is expected despite he warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) exceeding 28C and a very moist mid-level environment exceeding 80 percent relative humidity. Thereafter the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt, which would normally favor intensification. However, Kevin will be moving over near-22 deg C SSTs at that time, so weakening rather than strengthening is forecast in the 72-120 period. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the Navy COAMPS-TC model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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