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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-10 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100850 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 10 2021 The disturbance moved through the southern Leeward Islands a few hours ago. Based on surface observations from the islands, the system still does not have a well-defined circulation. Although the satellite appearance shows some increase in organization, the surface data suggest no significant strengthening has occurred thus far. The current intensity estimate is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later this morning and should provide an updated intensity estimate, and also determine whether the system has become a tropical cyclone. The disturbance continues moving west-northwestward, or about 295/15 kt. The flow on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge should maintain the west-northwestward track for the next 72 hours or so, with some slowing of forward speed by midweek. Beyond that time, a turn toward the northwest with further deceleration is likely while the system moves near the western periphery of the ridge. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest simple and corrected multi-model consensus tracks. Users are reminded that the average track errors at days 4 and 5 are 175 miles and 200 miles, respectively. Dynamical conditions appear to be conducive for intensification during the next 24 hours or so, with low vertical shear and pronounced upper-level outflow over the system. The main hindrance for strengthening today and tonight appears to be some dry mid-tropospheric air in the environment, as shown by the global models. Since the projected track takes the disturbance or cyclone over the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola, some weakening and disruption of the circulation is likely in 36 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in westerly shear which could also inhibit strengthening. The official intensity forecast closely follows the NOAA corrected consensus forecast technique, HCCA. There is significant uncertainty in 4-5 day intensity forecasts, however. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning this afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in northern Haiti and the southeastern Bahamas by late Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts elsewhere in portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 15.7N 62.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-10 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100849 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS... MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO EASTWARD A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE NORTH COAST FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. * HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 62.2W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 62.2W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 61.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.7N 64.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.0N 70.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.1N 72.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 74.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.4N 80.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.8N 83.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 62.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Twelve-E Forecast Information (.shp)
2021-08-10 10:46:16| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 08:46:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-10 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100844 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or 305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment. Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term, followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By 72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-10 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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