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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100233 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-09 23:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092101 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure located northeast of Barbados has continued to consolidate this afternoon, with several bands noted in both satellite and radar data from Barbados and Martinique. ASCAT data from this morning revealed a sharp trough axis, but the system lacked a well-defined circulation. However, recent visible satellite imagery hints that a better defined center may be forming just southwest of the primary convective mass. These trends suggest the system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or Tuesday when it moves near the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of the Dominican Republic. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/13 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge anchored over the western Atlantic should steer the system west-northwestward through the forecast period. Although there is high confidence in the overall steering pattern over the next several days, there is lower than normal confidence in the details of the track forecast, especially in the short-range due to the lack of a well-defined center. Exactly where the center forms will have some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of the exact track, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic over the next day or two, hence the need for Tropical Storm Watches for portions of those areas. The disturbance is embedded within an area of low vertical wind shear and SSTs of around 28C. These conditions favor additional development, but the occasional entrainment of dry mid-level air located just west of the system is likely to prevent more rapid organization. By Wednesday, the system is likely to be near Hispaniola, where subtle differences in the forecast track could have large implications on the intensity of the storm later this week. A track directly over Hispaniola would likely significantly disrupt the circulation, while a track more poleward of the island could allow the system to stay more intact. An additional caveat beyond 48 hours is that vertical wind shear out of the southwest may also increase, which could limit the intensity after the system moves past Hispaniola, although uncertainty exists in how much the shear will increase given differences between the more favorable ECMWF and less favorable GFS model solutions. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system up to a 45 kt tropical storm before potential land interaction with Hispaniola and afterwards is conservative given the possibility of additional land interaction and less favorable environmental conditions towards the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm as it moves through the Lesser Antilles tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the southern Leeward Islands tonight and Tuesday and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning Tuesday afternoon, and in the Dominican Republic by Wednesday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding and potential mudslides across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The greatest threat for flooding impacts will be across the eastern and southeastern portions of Puerto Rico. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba later this week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system is still in its formative stage. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in the remainder of the Bahamas and Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.2N 59.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-09 22:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092056 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS BEEN ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA * PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE SOUTH COAST FROM PUNTA PALENQUE EASTWARD AND THE ENTIRE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 59.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 58.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.4N 61.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 17.9N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.2N 70.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.3N 72.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 75.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.8N 78.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 24.5N 82.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 59.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PAPIN
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Visible satellite imagery and satellite wind data have revealed today that Kevin is a poorly organized tropical cyclone. The circulation is elongated from northeast-to-southwest, with one dominant, exposed low-level cloud swirl pivoting around the larger cyclonic gyre. The center has been initialized a little to the southwest of the exposed swirl, closer to a generalized mean cyclonic center. Satellite wind data also indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle, with a swath of 35-41 kt winds covering an area up to 110 n mi from the estimated center. Assuming some instrument undersampling, and based on the latest pair of 3.0 (45 kt) T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains at 45 kt. Kevin has not been able to get its act together over warm waters and within the favorable thermodynamic environment, likely due to moderate northeasterly shear and a subsequent lack of persistent deep convection over the center. The overall environment that the storm is interacting with is not expected to change much over the next 36 h. And, since the structure of the cyclone is not conducive for imminent strengthening, additional intensification is no longer anticipated. After 36 h, Kevin will begin to move over decreasing SSTs and into a more stable atmospheric environment. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 96 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures of less than 22 degrees C, which should result in the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly lower once again, and is in good agreement with the latest consensus intensity guidance. Kevin continues to move to the west-northwest, or 300/08 kt, along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This steering pattern is forecast by all of the forecast models to remain intact for the next several days, resulting in a continued west-northwestward motion. The track guidance has once again shifted slightly northward after 24 h. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast was also nudged a little to the north, and lies on the southern end of the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 17.0N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-08-09 22:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 111.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.3N 116.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.6N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 25.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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