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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-08-20 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201452 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 The organization of the depression has not changed much overnight or this morning. An area of convection has persisted near the estimated center, with some banding noted over the northwestern portion of the circulation. An earlier SSMIS overpass was very helpful in locating the center of what appears to be a small circulation. A very recent ASCAT overpass has also revealed a small circulation that is weak on the southeastern side, but with winds near tropical storm strength to the north of the center. The ASCAT data along with subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity. The depression continues to move briskly west-northwestward or 290/18 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed from before. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast to build westward and strengthen over the next several days. This pattern is expected to keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading throughout the forecast period. The dynamical models continue to agree on this overall scenario, but there some differences in both forward speed and how close it gets to the Greater Antilles. In general, the models that indicate a stronger cyclone favor a more northern track, while those which depicted a weaker system are along the southern and faster side of the envelope. The latest consensus aids are little north of the previous track, and the new NHC forecast lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. This is slightly north of the previous advisory, and not far from the GFS ensemble mean. The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity foreast now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater Antilles. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.0N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-08-20 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 201450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 52.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 52.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.0N 58.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.6N 64.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.4N 68.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 71.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 24.0N 78.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 52.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Genevieve Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-08-20 16:41:59| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 14:41:59 GMT
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Hurricane Genevieve Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-20 16:41:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020
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Hurricane Genevieve Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-08-20 16:39:54| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 20 2020
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