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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-21 17:14:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 211514 CCA TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MONTSERRAT IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA AND MONTSERRAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-21 16:56:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 211456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center. Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast. The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period, with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios. The structure of the depression aside, the environment still appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2 and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA, HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of 30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to diminish today. 2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-21 16:56:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211456 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating the system this morning and found that the maximum winds have increased to near 40 kt, and therefore the cyclone is being named. The Hurricane Hunters also found that the center of the storm is located somewhat to the south of previous estimates. The system is better organized than it was yesterday, but still lacks well-defined banding features. However, some upper-level outflow is now noted over the southern portion of the circulation. The official forecast calls for some slow strengthening during the next couple of days, but the intensity forecast is quite uncertain and depends on how much interaction with land will occur. For now, we will assume that the northern part of the circulation will remain over water so that the system will not be too disrupted by Hispaniola and Cuba. The official intensity forecast remains close to the model consensus except at days 4 and 5 where it is a little lower due to these uncertainties. With the repositioning of the center, the motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be 270/16 kt. Laura is expected to move mainly west-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical high pressure system over the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest as it moves around the western periphery of the high. The official track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one and is on the northern side of the guidance suite. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands Saturday and Sunday, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northeast U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-21 16:55:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 211455 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NICARAGUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.1W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.1W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 83.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 84.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-21 16:54:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 901 WTNT23 KNHC 211454 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES... CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI. THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CABRON TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 60.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.4N 62.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.3N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.2N 69.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.2N 73.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.6N 77.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.2N 80.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 26.5N 85.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 87.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 60.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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