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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 9

2020-08-22 04:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220252 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 63.5W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 63.5W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 65.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.4N 69.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 19.5N 72.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.8N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.1N 80.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.8N 83.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.5N 87.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 29.2N 90.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 63.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number storm laura advisory

Tropical Storm Marco Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-08-22 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 835 WTNT24 KNHC 220250 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 22 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO DZILAM MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 84.9W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 84.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

Tags: number marco storm advisory

Analysts Forecast About 150 More E&P Bankruptcies by End-2022

2020-08-22 00:30:00| OGI

Even at $40 WTI, about 150 more E&Ps in North America will need to seek Chapter 11 protection through 2022, according to Rystad Energy analysis.

Tags: forecast analysts bankruptcies forecast analysts

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-08-21 23:25:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212125 CCB TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 8...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Fri Aug 21 2020 Corrected formatting and initial intensity A poorly-defined convective band has become evident over the southeastern portion of the circulation. However, there is little or no deep convection near the estimated center. Overall, the system's cloud pattern still has a ragged appearance. Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35 to 45 kt, and the current intensity is held at 40 knots based on continuity from Hurricane Hunter observations from earlier today. There is a fairly well-defined upper-level outflow pattern at this time, but an upper-level trough to the west of Laura could be an impediment to future strengthening. The official intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus mainly due to the influences of the land masses of the Greater Antilles. At days 4-5, the intensity forecast is also a bit below the consensus due to uncertainties at these longer forecast ranges. The center is not very easy to see, even on visible or radar images, but the best guess at an initial motion is 275/15 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed much from the previous advisory package. Laura should move generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge for about the next 72 hours. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn northwestward as it begins to move around the western side of the ridge. The track guidance has shifted westward at days 4-5 and so has the official forecast, which is mostly close to the model consensus, but not quite as far west as that guidance in the latter part of the forecast period. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Laura shortly. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today through Saturday, Tropical Storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti from Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rainfall is likely across these areas beginning today and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over Portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida early next week and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by the middle of next week. Interests there should monitor the progress of Laura and updates to the forecast during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 61.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion storm laura

Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-08-21 22:50:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 212050 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND MONTSERRAT * THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE NORTHERN COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN CUBA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LAURA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 61.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 60.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.7N 63.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.6N 67.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 19.6N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.5N 74.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.0N 77.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 26.3N 86.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 61.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number storm laura advisory

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