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Tropical Storm Genevieve Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-08-21 10:39:19| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020

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Tropical Storm Genevieve Forecast Information (.shp)

2020-08-21 07:47:08| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 05:47:08 GMT

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-08-21 04:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 210258 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center of the broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at 4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed, which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection becomes more persistent. The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the NOAA-HCCA corrected model. Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as much as previously expected, which has significant implications in the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan, followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By 120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-08-21 04:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO CANCUN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER * PUNTA HERRERO TO CANCUN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 82.2W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 82.2W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 82.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-08-21 04:49:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210249 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been flying all around the circulation of the depression this evening, providing valuable information on the low-level structure. The strongest winds are primarily northeast of the center, with an elongated surface circulation and a mid-level swirl near the southern end. While the plane couldn't locate a definite center, there's enough uncertainty and curvature in the plane's wind field data to hold onto the system as 30-kt tropical depression for now. Another mission should be in the area around 1200 UTC. A late-arriving scatterometer pass confirms both the disorganization of the cyclone and the maximum winds. The initial motion continues about the same as before, 290/19. A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic should remain north of the depression during the next few days, steering the cyclone at a fast pace to the west-northwest. After the weekend, the ridge weakens some over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, leading to depression probably turning more to the northwest. The guidance has trended to the south and west after 24 hours tonight, led by the GFS and HWRF models. I'm not inclined to make significant changes since the models are about to ingest the information from the reconnaissance mission, plus the initial disorganization of the center, but the new track is still adjusted slightly to the south and west, north of much of the guidance. The depression should be moving through mixed conditions over the next few days. While the water is very warm, GFS forecasts show that there is significant mid-level shear that could continue to mix in nearby dry air toward the center. This shear will probably relax late this weekend or early next week, but there is very poor agreement on how much shear remains and the timing of this event. In addition, a track any farther south would result in potentially mountainous land interaction, which also increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. No significant changes were made to the previous wind speed forecast, and the overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 17.3N 56.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.9N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 18.6N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 19.4N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 20.3N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 21.3N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 22.6N 76.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 26.0N 82.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 29.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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