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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2

2020-08-20 22:57:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 202057 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system found an area of lighter winds--likely where the center would be--farther south than previous estimates. The highest flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 30 kt at an altitude of 2500 feet, and although there were some SFMR measurements over 40 kt, these looked coincident with some heavy rain rates and thus are probably not reliable. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Structurally, the depression has a large cloud envelope with sporadic convective cells located in loose bands. The updated initial position derived from the aircraft data indicates that the current motion is still westward, or 270/16 kt. This southward adjustment really only affected the first 36 hours or so of the forecast, with NHC's official track forecast being shifted southward during that period. This ends up taking the cyclone's center over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras in 12-24 hours. After 36 hours, model guidance remains in good agreement that the system should turn northwestward due to a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The new set of model guidance has not shifted much from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the morning forecast despite the initial position adjustment, with perhaps a slight eastward shift on days 4 and 5. In general, the NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and HCCA model solutions. The depression's farther-south position makes the intensity forecast more complicated with potentially more land interaction with parts of Central America. Slight strengthening to tropical storm strength is expected before the center reaches Honduras and Nicaragua, with little change thereafter until the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should then support further intensification up until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Since there is significant uncertainty in how land interaction will affect the cyclone's intensity, the forecast intensity has been flat-lined between day 2 and day 4, with the understanding that the the winds could increase or decrease from the value shown. Vertical shear is expected to increase by day 5, and some weakening is shown at that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that area tonight. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.3N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-08-20 22:56:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 202056 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS NORTHWARD. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS * BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS * PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS...INCLUDING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 81.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 80.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 81.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-08-20 22:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202053 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 PM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 Recent late afternoon visible satellite imagery has shown evidence of a low-level swirl that is racing away from the persistent area of deep convection. It is unclear if that is the only center of circulation or a swirl rotating around the broader circulation. The initial position for this advisory is a compromise between the earlier estimated center location and the swirl seen in satellite imagery. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/18 kt. The cyclone is located south of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to build westward over the western Atlantic through early next week. This ridge should steer the system west-northwestward over the next several days, and the suite of dynamical track models continue to be agreement on this overall scenario. The lastest NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again lies between the HFIP corrected consensus and the TVCA multi-model consensus. It should be noted that since the system is still lacking in organization, there could be some center reformations that result in some shifts in the track forecast. Although the depression has changed little in strength since it formed yesterday, the overall environment ahead of the system favors gradual strengthening. The cyclone is forecast to remain over warm water and in an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear. Most of the guidance suggests a little more favorable upper-level wind pattern once the system is north of the Greater Antilles, but a track farther south would result in more land interaction, which increases the intensity forecast uncertainty. The updated NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly slower rate of strengthening over the next couple of days, but is unchanged at the latter periods. The overall confidence in both the track and intensity forecasts remain lower than normal. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday and could cause mudslides and flash and urban flooding through Sunday. 2. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.7N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-08-20 22:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202052 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES... CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 53.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 57.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 70.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.2N 74.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 25.1N 80.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 28.3N 84.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 53.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Genevieve Forecast Information (.shp)

2020-08-20 22:49:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 20:49:30 GMT

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