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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-06-04 22:39:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 042039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 90.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 90.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 90.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 90.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-06-04 16:45:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 920 WTNT43 KNHC 041445 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 With the center remaining inland, Cristobal has continued to weaken, and the cloud pattern is becoming disorganized. The current intensity is reduced to 30 kt for this advisory, and the warnings for the Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico have been discontinued. Assuming that the center will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours, re-intensification should begin by tomorrow evening. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is not expected to be very conducive for intensification, with moderate southwesterly shear and some dry mid-level air. Not surprisingly, the intensity guidance, such as HWRF and LGEM, are not very bullish on strengthening. The official forecast remains a little above the latest intensity model consensus. It should still be noted, however, that there is some uncertainty as to the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico coast due to the limitations of forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change. The cyclone continues to move slowly east-southeastward, or 120/3 kt. Over the next day or so, Cristobal is likely to move along a partial cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre. By tomorrow night, the system should have begun moving northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This generally northward motion should continue until the center crosses the northern Gulf coast. There have been no important changes to the NHC track forecast, which is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus aids. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed, the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.6N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1200Z 19.0N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 06/1200Z 22.9N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0000Z 24.7N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/1200Z 26.7N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1200Z 30.8N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 35.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-06-04 16:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS THERE AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 91.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 91.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.7N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.8N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 91.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Remy Cointreau revisits Q1 sales forecast, with second-half poised for "strong recovery"
2020-06-04 13:36:00| Daily beverage news and comment - from just-drinks.com
Remy Cointreau has raised its forecast for first-quarter sales, thanks to "more favourable" trends towards spirits in the US.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-06-04 10:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040844 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther inland. There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the center. The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt. A slow eastward motion is expected today. After that, southerly flow associated with a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed. Later in the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf coast between 96-120 h. The new forecast track has no significant changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various consensus models. Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as the center drifts farther inland. Little subsequent change in strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation remaining over water. By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to regain tropical storm status at that time. From 48-120 h, Cristobal is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico, which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear. The intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before landfall on the northern Gulf coast. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours. Indeed, the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 17.9N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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