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Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Public Advisory Number 26
2014-09-30 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 302057 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 ...RACHEL BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 117.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS
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rachel
Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-09-30 22:57:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 302057 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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rachel
Post-Tropical Cyclone RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-09-30 22:56:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 302056 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.5W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 117.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RACHEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/RAMOS
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rachel
Tropical Depression RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-30 17:10:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 14:52:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 30 Sep 2014 15:04:45 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Depression RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-30 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 301451 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Satellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with Rachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now consisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite classifications. A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30 kt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep convection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken into a remnant low later today. Global model guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and dissipating shortly thereafter. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus. Rachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped in an environment of weak steering. The shallow cyclone should drift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days around the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation. The track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Ramos
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