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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-09-29 16:51:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291450 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 Rachel's cloud pattern has become considerably less organized. Deep convection associated with the cyclone has significantly decreased in coverage and intensity during the past several hours. First-light visible images also indicate that the center has become exposed on the south side of the nearest convection, the remnants of what was a central dense overcast 6 to 12 hours earlier. This change in structure has resulted from strong upper-level south- southwesterly winds, which is confirmed by UW-CIMSS analyses and SHIPS model output diagnosing 20-25 kt of shear. Satellite classifications are decreasing, and were T3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt at 1200 UTC from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these yields an intensity of 50 kt, which is in line with data from an overnight ASCAT pass. Even though Rachel will be over marginally warm waters during the next several days, strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear associated with a trough moving through the western United States should cause the cyclone to decouple within 24 hours. The shear, in combination with increasingly less conducive thermodynamic factors, should cause steady or even rapid weakening. Rachel is likely to become a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipation is indicated after 72 hours in agreement with the latest global model guidance. Rachel's forward motion has decreased further, and the initial motion estimate is 360/01. While still a vertically coupled vortex, the cyclone could inch northward or become stationary in a col area during the next 24 hours. Rachel should transition into a shallower cyclone after that time and be carried southwestward and westward with some increase in forward speed by the low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one but is adjusted slightly southward in light of the cyclone's reduction in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 22.8N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0000Z 22.9N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 22.7N 118.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-09-29 16:47:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 291447 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-09-29 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291446 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 117.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.9N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 22.7N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/LEWITSKY
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Hurricane RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-29 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Sep 2014 08:35:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Sep 2014 08:32:48 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-29 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL STILL A HURRICANE BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 the center of RACHEL was located near 22.8, -117.5 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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