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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-09-30 10:42:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 Rachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible that some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return to the circulation today. A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed the radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps generously, at 35 kt. Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast to become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and continued weakening is expected. The system should degenerate into a remnant low in 12-24 hours. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus, although just a little higher, suggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated here. There has been little movement over the past several hours, which was anticipated by the track model guidance. Rachel is in an environment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so through today. A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest and north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move very slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn toward the west. The official track forecast is close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2014-09-30 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 300833 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-30 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 the center of RACHEL was located near 23.3, -117.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 24
2014-09-30 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 300832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014 ...RACHEL BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 117.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS STATIONARY...AND A VERY SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 24
2014-09-30 10:31:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 117.5W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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