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Hurricane RACHEL Public Advisory Number 20
2014-09-29 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014 ...RACHEL STILL A HURRICANE BUT LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 117.5W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATER TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2014-09-29 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 290832 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0900 UTC MON SEP 29 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-29 05:09:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 29 Sep 2014 02:58:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 29 Sep 2014 03:05:46 GMT
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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-09-29 04:58:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 290257 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 Rachel has made a little bit of a resurgence since the previous advisory, with a well-defined 15-20 nmi diameter low- to mid-level eye apparent in various microwave satellite images. Visible satellite imagery during the past few hours also indicates a small ring of overshooting cloud tops beginning to encircle a ragged, cloud-filled eye. The only reason the initial intensity is being maintained at 65 kt is due to the lack of persistence in the recent increase in the inner-core convection. The initial motion estimate is 355/4 kt, which is based primarily on microwave satellite fix positions. The most recent NHC track model guidance has become less divergent since the previous advisory, with the 18Z GFS model now taking Rachel more westward after 24 hours. Overall, the models are in pretty good agreement on steering currents collapsing during the next 48 hours, resulting in Rachel becoming nearly stationary during that time, followed by a westward or southwestward drift as a remnant low pressure system. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory advisory track and the consensus model TVCE. Rachel is currently over 26C sea-surface temperatures, and the small cyclone will be moving over slightly cooler water during the next 48 hours. The cooler water, in combination with increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt by 36 hours, should induce gradual weakening throughout the forecast period with Rachel degenerating into a remnant low pressure system by 48 hours or so. This intensity forecast is consistent with a blend of the intensity consensus model IVCN and the Decay-SHIPS model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 22.5N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-29 04:57:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 the center of RACHEL was located near 22.5, -117.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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