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Summary for Hurricane RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)

2014-09-28 22:39:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...RACHEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 28 the center of RACHEL was located near 21.7, -117.4 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane RACHEL Public Advisory Number 18

2014-09-28 22:39:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 282039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 ...RACHEL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 117.4W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RACHEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2014-09-28 22:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 282039 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 18

2014-09-28 22:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 282039 TCMEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.4W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 117.4W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 117.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 117.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane RACHEL Graphics

2014-09-28 17:08:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 28 Sep 2014 14:45:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 28 Sep 2014 15:04:47 GMT

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