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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2014-09-28 16:45:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 281445 TCDEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 Rachel's cloud pattern has become much less organized. The central dense overcast has taken on a distorted appearance, with cold-topped deep convection more asymmetrically distributed. An intermittent eye seen earlier in nighttime visible imagery disappeared several hours ago. Although Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 0600 UTC, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, given the recent degradation of the cyclone's satellite signature. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear is expected during the next 24-48 hours in association with a deep mid-latitude trough passing through the western United States. The increase in shear, coupled with substantially less conducive thermodynamic factors, are expected to result in steady weakening that could become more rapid than indicated in the forecast. The NHC wind speed forecast shows a faster rate of weakening relative to the previous one, but remnant low status is still indicated by day 3. Rachel continues on a slow north-northwestward track, or 340/06, on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge near western Mexico. The cyclone's forward speed is expected to decrease further during the next day or so as it reaches a col area, and Rachel may come to a temporary halt in about 36 hours. With significant weakening occurring during this time, a much-shallower Rachel should begin to come under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow after this time and turn southwestward and westward with increasing forward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and the bulk of the track guidance but not as far south and west as the ECMWF solution. Only the GFS continues to insist on a track farther to the right and faster as a consequence of a stronger and more coupled vortex, responding to the deep-layer flow associated with the previously mentioned mid-latitude trough. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 21.5N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 22.0N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 22.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.3N 117.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.1N 117.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 21.3N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 03/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Hurricane RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-28 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 28 the center of RACHEL was located near 21.5, -117.2 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane RACHEL Public Advisory Number 17
2014-09-28 16:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281444 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014 ...RACHEL BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 117.2W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RACHEL MAY TEMPORARILY BECOME STATIONARY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RACHEL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-09-28 16:44:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 281444 PWSEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-09-28 16:44:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281444 TCMEP3 HURRICANE RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC SUN SEP 28 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 117.2W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 117.2W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 117.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 117.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.4N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.3N 117.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 117.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.3N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 117.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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