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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-12 01:43:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 112343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa, located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of the New England coast. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea this weekend. This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves generally northwestward near or over the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-11 20:13:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
857 ABNT20 KNHC 111727 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently named Subtropical Storm Melissa, located a couple hundred miles south-southeast of the New England Coast. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea this weekend. This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although tropical cyclone formation in this area is climatologically unlikely this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system is possible early next week while it moves generally northwestward near or over the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-11 19:44:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
699 ABPZ20 KNHC 111728 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 11 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves northwestward and then northward at 5 to 10 mph. Conditions will become less conducive for additional development early next week when the system begins to encounter colder waters and stronger upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the eastern Pacific south of the coast of southeastern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-11 14:30:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
255 ABNT20 KNHC 111230 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion for the system southeast of New England. UPDATED: Early morning visible satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized near the center of a low pressure system located about 200 miles south-southeast of Martha's Vineyard. If this trend continues, advisories will likely be issued for this system as a subtropical storm later this morning. Upper-level winds are expected to increase over the system during the weekend while the low weakens and moves away from the northeastern United States. This low is already producing storm-force winds, and is expected to continue meandering off the coast through tonight, producing strong winds, coastal flooding, heavy rainfall, and rough surf along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coasts. Additional information on this system can be found in local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the weekend. This system is forecast to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low remains over water while moving near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave, accompanied by a broad area of low pressure, is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Although the far eastern Atlantic is not climatologically favorable for tropical cyclone formation this late in the hurricane season, some development of this system appears possible early next week while it moves generally northwestward near or over the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-11 13:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111135 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Oct 11 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while the system moves northwestward and then northward at 5 to 10 mph. Development will become less likely early next week when the system begins to encounter colder waters and stronger upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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