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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-16 01:15:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 152315 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 80 miles south of coast of the Mexico/Guatemala border are beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or early Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, toward the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across El Salvador and Guatemala is forecast to spread westward over southern Mexico later tonight and Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be required for a portion of the southeastern coast of Mexico tonight or early Wednesday. Interests in those areas should should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-16 01:09:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 152309 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located near the northeastern Cabo Verde Islands. A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico and Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Some gradual development is possible after the disturbance moves over water and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week over the western Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 19:31:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151731 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated during the past several hours near an elongated area of low pressure located about 100 miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph, toward the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala tonight, and across southern Mexico on Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 19:29:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located less than 200 miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala, southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave located less than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system, and further development of this system is not anticipated while the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 13:27:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151127 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala today, and across southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days while the system moves little. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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