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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 13:25:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
393 ABNT20 KNHC 151125 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands. A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of this system appears unlikely while the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 07:46:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 150545 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east- southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system and another disturbance over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is over the western Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of this system appears unlikely while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 07:45:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 150545 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west- northwestward at about 10 mph close to or over the coast of southeastern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala on Tuesday, and across southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings are likely going to be required for a portion of that area on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is associated with a surface trough. Some development of this system is possible in a few days while the system drifts southward or eastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 142333 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwestward across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next day or so, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the system is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur later this week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is located about 750 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although this system continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms, upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for additional development during the next day or so while it moves westward at around 15 mph. On Wednesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become quite hostile when the wave approaches the Windward Islands and further development is not anticipated after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-10-15 01:33:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 142333 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Oct 14 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of El Salvador is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just offshore the coast of Guatemala and southern Mexico. By late this week, proximity to land could inhibit further development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras is forecast to spread westward over El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Tuesday, and into southern Mexico by Wednesday. These rains could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests along the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system in case tropical cyclone warnings are required for portions of theses areas later tonight or on Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
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