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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-13 09:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:40:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 09:31:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-11-13 09:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130838 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 A fortuitous 0348 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that Theta's surface center was a little to the north of the previous advisory position. The image also indicated that the coldest brightness temperatures were located in the northeast quadrant which sort of conflicts with the earlier scatterometer data showing the stronger surface winds in the southeast quadrant. More than likely though, these winds are being produced by the pressure gradient of the cyclone and a mid-level ridge to the southeast. Since the cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours and the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB hasn't either, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 12 hours or so as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. On Saturday, the trough migrates south of Theta, while strong northerly shear and a more stable air mass intrude from the northwest to north. As a result, Theta is expected to spin down and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by mid next week. Theta has been moving eastward during the last 12 hours within the mid-level troposphere steering current provided by a mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical Atlantic. The short term motion, however, already appears to be the anticipated to the right of track motion, or toward the east-southeast. Regardless, this general motion along with a reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days as a more vertically shallow Theta is influenced by the low-level flow. By day 3, the remnants of Theta are expected to turn rather sharply northward and continue in this general motion in response to an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone from the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one through the 72 hour period, then adjusted to the right to align more with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 31.9N 24.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 31.7N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 31.4N 21.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 31.1N 19.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 30.9N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 31.1N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z 32.1N 18.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z 36.0N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-11-13 09:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 628 FONT15 KNHC 130837 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-13 09:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 9:00 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 the center of Theta was located near 31.9, -24.9 with movement E at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 14
2020-11-13 09:37:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130837 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020 ...THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 24.9W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 24.9 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The cyclone should turn toward the east-southeast and slow its forward speed today. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or so. Afterward, weakening is expected through the weekend, and Theta is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate in 5 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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