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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Discussion Number 50
2020-11-12 21:43:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122043 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band located well east of the center. The circulation has also become more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary on Friday. Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday. Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical models. Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-12 21:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ETA EXPECTED TO PASS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... As of 4:00 PM EST Thu Nov 12 the center of Eta was located near 31.6, -80.6 with movement NE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 122041 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 9(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BALD HEAD ISL 34 19 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LITTLE RIVER 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122041 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...CENTER OF ETA EXPECTED TO PASS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday night before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula through early tonight, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida lasting into the weekend. Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall along with flash and significant river flooding that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office for additional information. SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the southeastern United States coast through early Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Eta Forecast Advisory Number 50
2020-11-12 21:41:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122040 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 80.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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