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Tropical Storm Theta Public Advisory Number 11
2020-11-12 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 121445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020 ...THETA NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 28.8W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 28.8 West. Theta is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36 hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-11-12 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 121445 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-11-12 15:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 121444 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 28.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 130SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 540SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 28.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 29.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 28.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Eta Public Advisory Number 48A
2020-11-12 12:55:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 121155 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 48A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 700 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020 ...CENTER OF ETA MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA... ...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 82.4W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge and Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued for the west coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 82.4 West. Eta is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should move across northeastern Florida this morning and emerge into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) primarily over water to the east of the center. A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing site at St. Augustine Florida recently reported sustained winds of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on surface observations from Cedar Key. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Water levels remain elevated and will gradually decrease throughout the day as the storm moves inland. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in South Florida. Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida lasting into the weekend. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the east coast of Florida through early this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Latto
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Tropical Storm Eta Graphics
2020-11-12 12:54:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 11:54:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Nov 2020 09:24:41 GMT
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