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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-30 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 300235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 Infrared and passive microwave imagery indicate that Marie has continued to become better organized despite moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt. The deep convection is now primarily confined to a single tightly curved band that wraps around the west side of the circulation. A late-arriving 29/1718Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed that Marie has a very tight inner-core circulation with a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of only 10-15 nmi and a small 34-kt wind radii extending outward to only about 20 nmi The scatterometer data also showed some 34-38 kt surface wind vectors in all quadrants. A blend of the scatterometer wind data and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates of of T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, Marie's forecast track remains fairly straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move generally westward to west-northwestward for the next few days as it skirts the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge to the north. Thereafter, a slower motion toward the northwest is forecast as Marie moves into a weakness in the ridge. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus track model guidance envelope. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models have backed off significantly on predicting rapid intensification (RI) on this cycle, several environmental and cyclone structural parameters are still favorable for RI to occur. For about the next 72 hours, sea-surface temperatures (SST) are forecast to remain above 28C, alone with mid-level humidity values above 70 prevent and low wind shear values around 5 kt. Those environmental conditions coupled with Marie's small RMW should result in RI beginning in about 24 hours and continuing until the 60-h time period. As result, Marie is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane in about 24 hours and possibly become a major hurricane in 60-72 hours. Rapid weakening is expected on days 4 and 5 due to SSTs less than 26C, likely significant cold upwelling owing to Marie's expected large and strong wind field, and increasing southwesterly vertical shear of 20-25 kt. The NHC official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM statistical models and the corrected-consensus HCCA model. Marie's 12-ft sea radii remain larger than would be expected for a small tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 13.8N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-30 04:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM MARIE STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 the center of Marie was located near 13.8, -110.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 997 WTPZ33 KNHC 300232 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARIE STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 110.4W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 110.4 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 910 FOPZ13 KNHC 300232 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 57(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 115W 50 X 22(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 44(45) 45(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 47(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 46(51) 1(52) X(52) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) 15(63) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-09-30 04:32:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 300232 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED SEP 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.4W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 115.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 19.8N 129.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 21.4N 132.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 110.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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