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Tropical Storm Marie Graphics
2020-09-29 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 20:34:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Sep 2020 20:34:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 292033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 A WindSat microwave image from earlier this morning indicated that the tropical cyclone's low-level circulation was becoming better defined, with perhaps the formative stage of a cyan ring seen in the 37-GHz channel. Visible images also show the center tucked just beneath recent bursts of deep convection, and Dvorak estimates have risen to T2.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. These data, along with ambiguity analyses of recent ASCAT-B and -C scatterometer passes, indicate the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Marie with maximum winds of 35 kt. Marie's future track is probably the most straightforward part of the forecast. A mid-tropospheric high anchored over the southwestern United States is steering Marie westward with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. This high will remain the main driver, forcing the cyclone westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days. By days 4 and 5, Marie is likely to reach a break in the ridge and should slow down a bit and turn toward the northwest. There are no notable outliers among the track guidance, and the small spread among the models yields higher-than-normal confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, and is close to the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. The intensity forecast is a little more challenging, but mostly because a good proportion of the guidance suggests that Marie will intensify significantly during the next few days. Relatively low deep-layer shear, warm ocean waters, and favorable upper-level divergence all favor strengthening, and several of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification thresholds are several times higher than their climatological means. In addition, all of the dynamical models, the consensus aids, and the GFS-based SHIPS model bring Marie to hurricane strength within 24 hours. Given these signals, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one and lies near or just below the intensity consensus in order to maintain some continuity. But given what is shown by some of the better-performing intensity models, I would not be surprised if subsequent forecasts show a faster rate of intensification or a higher peak intensity. Weakening is expected by days 4 and 5 due to cooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear. Marie's 12-ft sea radii are larger than would be expected for a small, just-developing tropical storm due to a large fetch of southerly swell originating from the Southern Hemisphere. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 13.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 14.6N 114.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.9N 117.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.2N 124.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.6N 128.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 21.4N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-09-29 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 the center of Marie was located near 13.6, -109.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marie Public Advisory Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 292033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marie Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORMS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 109.5W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 109.5 West. Marie is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Marie could become a hurricane by Wednesday or Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-09-29 22:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 292033 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 X 48(48) 33(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 115W 50 X 15(15) 32(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 15N 115W 64 X 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 78(85) 4(89) X(89) X(89) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 9(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 32(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 4(51) X(51) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) X(20) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) 1(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 20(58) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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