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Hurricane Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-16 10:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:55:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-09-16 10:26:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160826 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 Vicky remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical storm. The low-level center is displaced to the west-southwest of the main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, which is well above the Dvorak estimates. Vicky is expected to remain in hostile wind shear conditions while traversing 26 C waters, so it seems likely that weakening should occur. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the model guidance and shows gradual weakening during the next few days. Vicky is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of days, but it is always tricky to figure out when these systems will lose all of its convection since it is forecast to stay over relatively warm waters. The storm continues to more west-northwestward, a little to the left of the previous track at 285/9. Vicky should gradually turn westward later today and west-southwestward in a couple of days when it becomes a shallow cyclone and moves in the low-level flow. The new track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to be closer to the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 21.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 21.9N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 22.0N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 21.7N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 21.4N 42.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 20.8N 44.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-16 10:26:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:26:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:26:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-16 10:25:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 160825 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Karina Graphics
2020-09-16 10:25:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:25:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 08:25:08 GMT
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