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Hurricane Maria Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

2017-09-26 17:13:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 15:13:27 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Graphics

2017-09-26 16:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 14:46:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 15:28:25 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2017-09-26 16:43:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 26 Sep 2017 14:43:25 GMT

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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 42

2017-09-26 16:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 261441 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 The satellite presentation of Maria has continued to slowly degrade over the past 24 hours, as deep convection is now confined to the southeastern portion of the circulation. Peak surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer on the reconnaissance aircraft have been around 60 kt both overnight and this morning, but due to sampling considerations for such a large wind field the initial wind speed is held at 65 kt for this advisory. Cool waters and moderate west-northwesterly shear are expected to cause a gradual decrease in intensity over the next couple of days, and Maria is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today or tonight. Little change in strength is expected later in the period while Maria accelerates east-northeastward and begins to interact with a frontal boundary over the north Atlantic. Maria continues to move slowly northward around the western side of a subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level ridge over the northeastern United States to the north of Maria is likely to keep the cyclone's forward motion slow for the next 24-36 h. After that time, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes region is expected to lift Maria east-northeastward or northeastward at an increasing forward speed. The track guidance remains in good agreement on the scenario but there continue to be large speed differences after 48 hours. The new official forecast is a little slower than the previous one at days 3-5 to be more in line with the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast for the next 36 hours, and will likely bring some direct impacts to portions of the North Carolina coast through Wednesday where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina. 3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 33.6N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 34.3N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 35.1N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 35.7N 72.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 36.1N 70.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 37.6N 63.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 42.5N 49.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42

2017-09-26 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 261441 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 7(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 2 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 8(12) 5(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) RICHMOND VA 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 8(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) NORFOLK VA 34 5 9(14) 6(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) OCEANA NAS VA 34 6 11(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ELIZABETH CTY 34 8 13(21) 5(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) RALEIGH NC 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 30 18(48) 5(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CAPE HATTERAS 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 8 7(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 13 10(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) MOREHEAD CITY 34 10 9(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 34 5 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 4( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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