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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2017-09-26 10:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 260845 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 6( 9) 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 5( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) RICHMOND VA 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 5 5(10) 8(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) NORFOLK VA 34 5 7(12) 8(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) OCEANA NAS VA 34 6 7(13) 9(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ELIZABETH CTY 34 7 9(16) 9(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 29 17(46) 8(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CAPE HATTERAS 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 9 8(17) 5(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 34 15 12(27) 6(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 9(20) 6(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) SURF CITY NC 34 6 4(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 5 4( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-26 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 the center of Maria was located near 32.9, -73.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 41
2017-09-26 10:45:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 260845 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 ...MARIA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 73.1W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of North Carolina during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Maria remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning later today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New England. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 41
2017-09-26 10:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 260844 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0900 UTC TUE SEP 26 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 73.1W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 210SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..440NE 440SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 73.1W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.7N 73.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.6N 73.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.4N 72.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.8N 71.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 180SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 48.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.9N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-26 07:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 the center of Maria was located near 32.6, -73.2 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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