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Hurricane Maria Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2017-09-25 16:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 14:45:23 GMT
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-09-25 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 251440 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Maria's structure has changed considerably since yesterday. Deep convection is primarily confined to the eastern semicircle of the circulation and the radius of maximum winds has significantly increased. After not finding many SFMR winds over 60 kt during the overnight flights, the latest Air Force Reserve Aircraft measured SFMR winds of 65-70 kt about 90 n mi from the center over the eastern portion of the circulation. As a result, the initial wind speed is set at 70 kt, a slight readjustment from the 1200 UTC estimate indicated in the intermediate advisory. The 50-kt and 64-kt wind radii have also been adjusted outward primarily over the eastern semicircle based on the aircraft data. The intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as that in the previous advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly shear, and dry air are expected to cause gradual weakening over the next couple of days. The global model guidance suggests Maria will remain a strong tropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward later in the forecast period. Therefore, the NHC forecast is a little higher than the statistical guidance at those times. Maria continues to move northward or 360/6 kt. Although Maria is being steered northward between a mid- to upper-level low over the southeastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic, the hurricane's forward motion should remain quite slow as it is currently being impeded by a mid-level ridge over the northeastern United States. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to move across the Great Lakes region and into the northeast United States by the end of the week. This feature should cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward after 72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through 48 hours, but there are some differences in Maria's forward speed after that time. The NHC forecast track is near the middle of the guidance envelope through 48 h and is in between the ECMWF and various consensus models later in the period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North Carolina. 3. Swells from Maria are occurring along the coast of the southeastern United States and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 31.2N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 31.8N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 32.9N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 33.8N 73.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 34.7N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 35.7N 71.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 37.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 42.0N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-25 16:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 31.2, -72.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 38
2017-09-25 16:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 251440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 72.9W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border * North of Surf City to south of Cape Lookout A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck Interests elsewhere along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor the progress of Maria. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 72.9 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will move well east of the southeast coast of the United States during the next day or so. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of center and tropical- storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting portions of the coast of the southeastern United States and Bermuda and will be increasing along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. Swells also continue to affect Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2017-09-25 16:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 251440 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 7(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 7(23) X(23) X(23) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 7(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 5 11(16) 18(34) 10(44) 8(52) X(52) X(52) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 5( 9) 8(17) 5(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 8(13) 11(24) 7(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37) MOREHEAD CITY 34 4 7(11) 9(20) 6(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) SURF CITY NC 34 3 4( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 4( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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