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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-09-25 22:39:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 252039 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Maria's coldest cloud tops and deepest convection continue to be over the far eastern and northern portions of the circulation, but a small area of convection has re-developed near the center this afternoon. SFMR data from a NOAA aircraft investigating Maria indicate that the maximum winds remain near 70 kt, and that the area of hurricane-force winds extends about 90 nm from the center over the eastern semicircle. Maria continues its slow northward trek. A slow northward motion should continue for another couple of days as Maria moves around the western side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic, but the forward speed is atypically slow due to ridging over the northeastern United States. A deep mid-latitude trough will be moving into the northeastern U.S. late this week, which is expected to cause Maria to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours. The track guidance remains tightly clustered through the first 48 to 72 hours, but there are still some speed differences beyond that time. The NHC forecast track lies near the middle of the guidance envelope through 72 h, and is close to the various consensus aids late in the period. Cooler waters, moderate westerly shear, and dry air are expected to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the next few days. However, Maria is likely to remain a strong cyclone throughout the forecast period. Extratropical transition is likely to begin in 96 h with Maria completing this process near the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North Carolina. 3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New England. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 31.7N 73.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 33.5N 73.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 34.4N 73.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 35.3N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 36.3N 69.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 38.8N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 45.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 39
2017-09-25 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 252038 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 6(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 4(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK VA 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) OCEANA NAS VA 34 2 5( 7) 7(14) 8(22) 4(26) X(26) X(26) ELIZABETH CTY 34 3 6( 9) 9(18) 7(25) 4(29) X(29) X(29) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 7 19(26) 15(41) 8(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 4 8(12) 7(19) 4(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NEW RIVER NC 34 5 13(18) 10(28) 4(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 10(15) 8(23) 5(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) SURF CITY NC 34 4 5( 9) 5(14) 3(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MYRTLE BEACH 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)
2017-09-25 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 the center of Maria was located near 31.7, -73.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 39
2017-09-25 22:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 252038 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 ...MARIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 73.1W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Duck to the North Carolina/Virginia border has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Bogue Inlet and the Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued west of Bogue Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bogue Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Lookout to Duck A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 73.1 West. Maria is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will pass east of the coast of North Carolina during the next couple of days. Reports from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Maria is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday. Maria is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41002, located about 100 miles west-northwest of Maria's center, recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area beginning Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Cape Lookout to Duck including the sound side of the Outer Banks...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the Outer Banks of North Carolina through Wednesday. SURF: Large swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States from Florida through southern New England. These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 39
2017-09-25 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 252037 TCMAT5 HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO BOGUE INLET AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF BOGUE INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 73.1W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 73.1W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 73.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 73.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.4N 73.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.3N 69.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 38.8N 60.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 45.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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