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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 690 WTNT41 KNHC 141457 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 Recent microwave satellite imagery and early morning visible pictures show that Iota remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the center located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT data and recent satellite estimates. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iota early this afternoon. Somewhat surprisingly Iota has not strengthened much since yesterday, which appears to be the result of some unexpected shear and its close proximity to the northwest coast of Colombia. The global models predict that the shear will relax soon, and that the system will be in quite favorable conditions for strengthening. The NHC forecast again calls for steady to rapid strengthening in the next 12-60 h once the storm organizes enough to take advantage of the expected favorable conditions. The updated NHC intensity is similar to the previous forecast and shows Iota at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. Although the center of Iota was relocated to the south and west of the earlier estimates, the long-term initial motion estimate is 255/4 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to build eastward to the north of Iota during the next day or two, and this feature should cause the cyclone to move westward to west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. This should bring the center near the coast of northeastern Nicaragua or Honduras in 2 to 3 days. After landfall, a west-southwestward motion is expected with Iota moving inland over Central America. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted southward, especially in the first 24 to 36 hours due to the more southward initial position. The NHC track lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is between the lastest global model interpolated trackers and the model fields. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area later today. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. 2. Through Thursday, heavy rainfall from Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in significant impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 12.7N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 707 FONT11 KNHC 141457 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 6(22) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 12(34) 4(38) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 3(19) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 39(55) 7(62) 2(64) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 1(33) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) 1(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 1(17) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 11(35) 2(37) X(37) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) LIMON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 14 the center of Iota was located near 12.7, -76.2 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 141457 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN ANDRES * PROVIDENCIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 76.2W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 75.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 12.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.4N 78.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.9N 80.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.2N 81.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.4N 83.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.3N 86.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 90.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 76.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 5
2020-11-14 15:57:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 141457 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 ...IOTA REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT STILL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 76.2W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm warning for the islands of San Andres and Providencia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Andres * Providencia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of Iota, and a Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of these countries. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 76.2 West. Iota is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely to begin tonight or Sunday, and Iota is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Thursday: Honduras, northern Nicaragua, eastern Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500 to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm). This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain. El Salvador, southern Nicaragua and southern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm). Jamaica: 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) Wind: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on the islands of San Andres and Providencia late Sunday. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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