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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-14 06:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 140532 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Theta, located over the far eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Iota, located over the central Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Iota are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Iota are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-14 03:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 02:41:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 03:31:40 GMT
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iota
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past several hours. Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there is a dry slot. All of the satellite intensity estimates are around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become more pronounced soon. A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and build to the north of the tropical cyclone. Since this ridging is expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast before the center arrives. The latest models are in fairly good agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is a little slower than the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west and dissipate on Saturday. This should leave the storm in favorable conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear and high moisture this weekend and early next week. These conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until Iota makes landfall. The main question is how strong will Iota become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological mean. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta's recent effects there. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.6N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 13 the center of Iota was located near 13.6, -74.2 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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iota
Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 74.2W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of that area on Saturday. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 74.2 West. Iota is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Across Honduras and northern Nicaragua: 8 to 16 inches or 200 to 400 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches or 500 mm. Across Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia, southern Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador: 3 to 6 inches or 75 to 150 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches or 250 mm. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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