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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-15 18:24:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151724 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico continues to show some signs of organization. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, a tropical depression could form within a few days as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. Conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-15 12:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151137 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico has increased somewhat overnight. Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within a few days as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. By mid week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-15 12:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151136 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Theta, located over the far northeastern Atlantic, and on Hurricane Iota, located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Theta Graphics
2020-11-15 09:38:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:38:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 08:38:58 GMT
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Tropical Depression Theta Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-11-15 09:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150837 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around 90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at 30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low later today. The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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