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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-11-15 06:25:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
166 ABPZ20 KNHC 150525 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A broad and disorganized area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce minimal shower activity. Slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form in a few days as the system moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. By late next week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Theta Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-11-15 03:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150236 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020 Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with little change in its satellite appearance since the previous advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak classification received from TAFB. Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter, continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next week. Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 31.7N 18.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Theta Graphics
2020-11-15 03:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 02:35:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Nov 2020 02:35:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Theta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-11-15 03:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 150235 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM THETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM THETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Theta (AT5/AL302020)
2020-11-15 03:34:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...THETA IS STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 3:00 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 the center of Theta was located near 31.7, -18.7 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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