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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-10 07:15:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 100515 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Norbert, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Dry air continues to limit shower and thunderstorm activity in association with a small low pressure system located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so as the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics
2020-10-10 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 02:39:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 03:31:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-10 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h. Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-10-10 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 100236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)
2020-10-10 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORBERT REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 9:00 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 the center of Norbert was located near 14.0, -106.8 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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