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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-09 20:42:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

693 ABPZ20 KNHC 091735 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Norbert, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A small, well-defined low pressure system is located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Dry mid-level air is currently inhibiting shower and thunderstorm activity. However, environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and if there is an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-09 19:41:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

031 ABNT20 KNHC 091723 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Delta, located over the Gulf of Mexico just south of the Louisiana coast. A westward-moving tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of the system this weekend or early next week while it is located over the tropical Atlantic well east of the Lesser Antilles. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-09 19:35:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091735 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Norbert, located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. A small, well-defined low pressure system is located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Dry mid-level air is currently inhibiting shower and thunderstorm activity. However, environmental conditions are somewhat conducive for development, and if there is an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity a tropical depression could still form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about 10 mph during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics

2020-10-09 16:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2020 14:33:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2020 15:31:35 GMT

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-10-09 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091433 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in agreement with the majority of the global models. Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest, albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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