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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-10 20:08:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
542 ABNT20 KNHC 101808 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Delta, centered inland over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A westward moving tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Slow development of this system could be possible later this weekend or early next week while the wave continues moving westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-10-10 19:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101744 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms have changed little since early this morning in association with a small low pressure system located about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, satellite data suggests that the low is not as well-defined as it was yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive for development as the low is expected to encounter dry air while moving toward the west or west-southwest at 10 to 15 mph over the next day or so. Thereafter, strong upper-level winds will likely inhibit further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico are associated with the remnants of Norbert. Little to no development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of days due to unfavorable environmental conditions. However, by the middle of next week the disturbance is expected to begin moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area where conditions are expected to become more favorable for some development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Delta Graphics
2020-10-10 16:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:47:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:47:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Delta Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-10-10 16:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this afternoon. The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta or its remnants generally northeastward until the system dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models. Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern Arkansas. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday. Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-10 16:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DELTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 the center of Delta was located near 33.1, -90.8 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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