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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 110839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 31(77) 6(83) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 29(47) 6(53) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 4(30) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-11 07:42:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110542 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Paulette, located over the central tropical Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Rene, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida later today and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Another trough of low pressure is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently minimal, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves westward and then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days while the system moves generally westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic early next week while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-11 07:15:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 110515 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located a little less than 400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has diminished considerably during the past several hours. Some development of this system, however, is still possible during the next couple of days before it interacts with, and possibly becomes absorbed by, a larger weather disturbance to its east. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A broad area of low pressure located about 300 miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-11 04:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 02:52:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 02:52:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-11 04:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110251 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Paulette has been fighting off intense vertical wind shear, which is analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be on the order of 35-40 kt out of the southwest. Deep convection with cold cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C have persisted near and to the northeast of the center throughout the evening. A late arriving ASCAT overpass revealed that Paulette is stronger than previously analyzed, with believable wind vectors of 50-55 kt in the northeastern quadrant. There were some values even higher than these. However, the ASCAT ambiguities and satellite imagery suggest most of those are either rain contaminated or too close to the edge of the ASCAT pass to be trustworthy. Nonetheless, the other values indicate that the initial intensity is now at least 55 kt. The SHIPS guidance suggests that the current shear over Paulette will begin to gradually decrease tomorrow and continue to decrease into the weekend. By late Saturday the guidance indicates the shear could fall to 10 kt or less. By that time, the cyclone is forecast to be traversing over waters with SSTs near 29 C. The only negative environmental factor could be some dry air in the vicinity of the system. However that same dry air has not seemed to have that much of an effect on Paulette as of late. With shear expected to remain fairly strong the next 24 h, no strengthening is anticipated during that time. After 24 h, Paulette should gradually intensify into early next week. The NHC intensity forecast for this advisory has been increased across the board. In the near term this change is due to the adjusted initial intensity. Beyond 24 h, the latest NHC forecast is close to a blend of the multi-model consensus values, including the HFIP corrected consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. Paulette is now moving northwest, or 305/09 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning from the previous advisory. The forecast models are in good agreement between a generally northwest to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered around a subtropical ridge to its north. Around day 4, about the same time the system would be making its closest approach to Bermuda, a turn to the northeast is expected as the system rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tracks of the various consensus aids. It should be noted that there is sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early next week. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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