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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-16 10:42:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 08:42:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 09:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-16 10:42:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 160841 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression continues as a marginal tropical cyclone. A small burst of deep convection formed over the southwestern portion of the circulation, but there is no evidence of convective banding. The current intensity estimate remains at 30 kt in agreement with a partial scatterometer overpass, but slightly above the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The depression is expected to remain in an environment of northeasterly shear for the next several days, so no change in strength is called for during the forecast period. It should be noted that if the cyclone were to lose its convection for an extended time during the period, it would degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low. The cyclone is drifting northward, or about 360/02 kt, while embedded in weak steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest of the system during the next few days. This should cause the depression to turn toward the west and west-southwest, albeit at a very slow forward speed, during the period. This is in line with the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 13.4N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TEN-E HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.4, -133.8 with movement N at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 13
2020-08-16 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 160841 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020 ...TEN-E HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 133.8W ABOUT 1695 MI...2730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 133.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the northwest and west at a slow speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-08-16 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 160841 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 15N 135W 34 1 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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