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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 19:29:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 151729 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southeast of the New England states of the United States. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. && Public Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Kyle are issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-15 19:24:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 151724 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located more than 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a small area of showers. This system has moved over colder waters and further development is unlikely. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A large area of persistent showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The disturbance does not appear to have developed a well-defined center yet, but conditions are expected to be favorable for further development today and tomorrow, and tropical depression is likely to form during that time. This system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A low pressure system located several hundred miles southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to show signs of development. A broad and elongated closed low pressure system has formed, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to organize into bands. Although recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined center, environment conditions appear conducive for further development. A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form tonight or on Sunday while the system moves generally west-northwestward just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-15 16:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:43:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 15 Aug 2020 14:43:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-08-15 16:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151442 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 The exposed center of Kyle has become elongated this morning. Deep convection remains limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, a consequence of strong upper-level westerly winds. Despite the shear, there are indications that Kyle's winds have increased. A ship (KABP) recently reported 50 kt winds just to the south of Kyle's center. Although the observation was elevated, it still supports increasing the intensity to 45 kt. Kyle will continue to move quickly east-northeastward away from the coast of the U.S. and well south of the Canadian Maritimes today. The tropical storm is being steered by a mid- to upper-level trough and will likely continue on its general heading and speed for the day or so, followed by a turn toward due east by early Monday. The tropical storm has remained over the Gulf Stream thus far, which is likely helping it to maintain its tropical structure in the face of an otherwise hostile upper-air environment. Some additional strengthening is possible today or early Sunday before Kyle becomes post-tropical. The exact timing of that transition is still somewhat uncertain, but it is clear that Kyle will become an extratropical cyclone by early next week. After becoming post-tropical, gradual weakening is anticipated until the system becomes poorly-defined and is absorbed by a larger extratropical low by the middle of the week, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.8N 62.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 40.8N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 41.7N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 42.2N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 18/0000Z 42.5N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kyle (AT2/AL122020)
2020-08-15 16:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM KYLE HEADING OUT TO SEA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 15 the center of Kyle was located near 39.0, -65.6 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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