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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-08-16 10:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 160840 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.8W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 133.8W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 134.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.8N 135.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 136.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.0N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 12.3N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 133.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-16 07:26:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 160526 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-08-16 07:24:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 160524 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Ten-E, located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form on Sunday. This system is expected to move generally west-northwestward, well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1. Additional information on the low south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kyle Graphics
2020-08-16 04:39:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 02:39:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 03:31:41 GMT
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kyle
Tropical Storm Kyle Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-16 04:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 160238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020 Although Kyle continues to lose its overall tropical appearance, a burst of deep convection redeveloped, albeit sheared to the northeast of the low-level center, which is close enough to the center to still the system classified as a tropical cyclone. ASCAT-A/-B passes at 2333Z/0047Z easily supported winds of 35 kt south through southwest of the center and, allowing for some slight undersampling, the initial intensity has thus been lowered to 40 kt. The initial motion is 075/17 kt. There is no significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Kyle is expected to continue moving east-northeastward tonight and Sunday morning, maintaining that eastward motion until the cyclone is absorbed into a larger extratropical low in a couple of days. The official forecast similar to the previous advisory track and essentially lies near the center of the NHC track guidance envelope. Kyle's low-level center is becoming increasingly stretched out northeast-to-southwest and the earlier burst of deep convection has also recently begun to wane, succumbing to 40 kt of westerly deep-layer vertical wind shear. Thus, Kyle is not long for this world, with the cyclone expected to lose all convection within the next 6 to 12 hours, and continue to weaken and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone Sunday morning. It is highly possible that the next advisory could be the last forecast on Kyle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 40.0N 60.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 40.6N 57.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 17/0000Z 41.1N 53.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/1200Z 41.2N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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