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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM OLAF BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.1, -111.3 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 101448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM OLAF BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 111.3W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF LA PAZ MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico from Todos Santos to Cabo San Lazaro. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward and around the peninsula to Loreto A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 111.3 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west at a slower forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the southwest on Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move along the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur today and then move westward away from land by tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday and weaken to a remnant low on Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area and will spread northward across central portions of Baja California Sur today. Tropical storm conditions should end over Baja California Sur by tonight. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-10 16:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101448 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-10 16:48:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 007 WTPZ25 KNHC 101447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 111.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-10 13:16:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 101116 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Olaf, located over southern Baja California Sur, Mexico. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Pacific coast of Central America and the adjacent waters are associated with the southern portion of a tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or two, and the low could then develop further into a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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