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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 6:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.7, -113.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102352 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 113.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will continue moving away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 01:47:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102347 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic several hundred miles southwest of Newfoundland, Canada. The northern part of a tropical wave is interacting with a surface trough over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The merger of these features is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday before the system moves near or onshore of the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A strong tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 01:29:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102329 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 10 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Olaf, located just off the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, Mexico. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located within a couple of hundred miles of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico are associated with the southern portion of an approaching tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this wave to the south of the southern coast of Mexico during the next day or so. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally northwestward near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-10 22:46:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 20:46:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 20:46:21 GMT
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