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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-09 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 092036 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 78.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 78.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-09 20:04:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091803 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 2021 Corrected position reference for Larry and Mindy. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Depression Mindy, located offshore the southeast coast of the United States. The northern portion of a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Honduras and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive to support some gradual development of this disturbance before it moves over mainland Mexico early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa Saturday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Mindy are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-09 19:52:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 091752 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 9 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Olaf, located a little more than 100 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Subsequent gradual development of this system will be possible, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward near the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics
2021-09-09 16:54:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 14:54:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 14:54:15 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-09 16:52:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091452 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has recently moved offshore the coast of Georgia. Buoy 41008 located off the Georgia coast recently recorded 1-min sustained winds of 29 kt with gusts as high as 33 kt. Thus, 30 kt is maintained as the intensity for this advisory. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The strong shear should prevent restrengthening and is likely to strip away any remaining convection by Friday or Friday night. Mindy is forecast to become post-tropical Friday evening. Most of the global models suggest that the cyclone will open up into a trough in 36-48 h, but it is possible this could happen sooner, as surface observations already show that easterly winds on the north side have become quite weak. The NHC forecast calls for dissipation Friday night, which is sooner than the previous advisory. Mindy continues moving quickly to the east-northeast or 065/18 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The main adjustment to the NHC track is to show a slightly faster motion toward the east-northeast at the 24-36 h points. Key Messages: 1. Mindy will produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South Carolina through early this afternoon. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 31.5N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 32.5N 77.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 33.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 34.3N 70.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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