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Tropical Storm Olaf Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 181 FOPZ15 KNHC 090853 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 8 84(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 46(46) 13(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 81(89) 4(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 34(34) 9(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 1 13(14) 26(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 12 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MAZATLAN 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-09 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 966 WTPZ25 KNHC 090853 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO AND NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM LOS BARRILES TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO NORTH OF LOS BARRILES TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OLAF. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.4N 108.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.6N 110.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 111.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.1N 115.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.1N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.3N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 108.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics
2021-09-09 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 090841 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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