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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 101435 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 1 22(23) 37(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-10 14:00:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 101200 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Surface observations and radar data from the KDOX WSR-88D radar indicate that there is now an area of 34-kt winds extending north and northwest of the center of Fay. These winds will be approaching the coast of Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay in the next few hours, and as a result the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware and the southern Delaware Bay. No changes were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts, however 34-kt wind radii were introduced in the northwest quadrant at the initial time and at the 12-h forecast. No other changes were made to the wind radii analyses or forecasts. Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC) intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1200Z 37.6N 74.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 38.9N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 41.5N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 45.2N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z 48.6N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 51.8N 68.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 14:00:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 12:00:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 12:00:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Public Advisory Number 4
2020-07-10 13:59:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 101159 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fay Special Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 800 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DELAWARE COASTLINE AS HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.6N 74.7W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended southward to Fenwick Island Delaware, including southern Delaware Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Fenwick Island Delaware to Watch Hill Rhode Island including Long Island and Long Island Sound * Southern Delaware Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 37.6 North, longitude 74.7 West. Fay is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-Atlantic coast today and move inland over the mid-Atlantic or the northeast United States late tonight or on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today and tonight while the center remains over water. Weakening should begin after the center moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. A Weatherflow station at Lewes, Delaware recently reported a sustained wind of 33 mph (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fay can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maxima of 7 inches along and near the track from the lower Maryland Eastern Shore and Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning in the next few hours and spread northward through the warning area tonight. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of New Jersey, southeast New York, and southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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