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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-10 07:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 100535 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Jul 9 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Cristina, located just west-southwest of Socorro Island. A strong tropical wave located over Central America is expected to move over the far eastern Pacific in a day or so. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form early next week while it moves quickly westward well south of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-07-10 07:34:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 100534 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fay, located just offshore of the Virginia coast. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fay are issued under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Fay Graphics
2020-07-10 04:40:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:40:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Jul 2020 02:40:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-10 04:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 100239 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation center of Fay is elongated northeast-southwest, with satellite and radar data showing a strong convective cluster at the northeastern end of the elongation. There have been no observations near the center during the past few hours, and the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. An Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Fay. Due to the elongated center and the possibility the center is trying to re-form near the convection, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 010/7. There is no change to the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and essentially no change to the forecast track. Fay is expected to move generally northward between a high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching mid-latitude trough for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast until dissipation between 60-72 h. The guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast lies close to the various consensus models. Fay is currently over the Gulf Stream and within an area of light to moderate westerly shear caused by an upper-level trough to its west and southwest. This is producing an environment that should allow a little strengthening for the next 12-24 h. After that, the storm should weaken as it passes over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, followed by landfall over the northeastern United States. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for extratropical transition between 48-60 h and dissipation shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8 inches along and near the track across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditionsare expected along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast Friday and Friday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 36.3N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 37.7N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 43.0N 73.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 46.7N 71.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/1200Z 50.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fay Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-07-10 04:39:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 100238 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 4( 4) 22(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLIP NY 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 19(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 11(11) 14(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 10(10) 11(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEWARK NJ 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TRENTON NJ 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 20(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 11 10(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 24 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) OCEAN CITY MD 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) WALLOPS CDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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