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Summary for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Tue Sep 7 the center of Fifteen-E was located near 18.2, -107.4 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080243 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 ...CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 107.4W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The southern portion of Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 107.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest is forecast to occur later tonight, and this motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will approach the southern end of the Baja California Peninsula late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane on Thursday or Thursday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Baja California Sur by late Thursday or Thursday night. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from the depression are likely to produce locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds along the coast of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible over portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Thursday night. SURF: The strengthening cyclone is expected to generate swells that will affect the portions of the southern Baja California peninsula by Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-08 04:43:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080243 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 33(40) 7(47) X(47) X(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 26(31) 7(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 9(10) 37(47) 11(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) 1(25) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-08 04:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080242 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0300 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM TODOS SANTOS TO LOS BARRILES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.4W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 107.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-08 01:44:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 072344 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Sep 7 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly developed Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located about 350 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Beven
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