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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-08 13:55:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 081154 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the weekend a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system early next week while it moves west-northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-08 13:54:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081154 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move northeastward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or subtropical development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the western coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2021-09-08 10:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 08:51:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 09:29:08 GMT
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tropical depression
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080849 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 08 2021 The circulation of the depression has continued to become better defined, and there has been a substantial increase in deep convection within bands to the north and northeast of the center. However, the inner core remains slightly displaced from this activity, and a combination of subjective and objective intensity estimates supports maintaining the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for this advisory. The system has either been meandering or its center re-formed yesterday, and the long-term motion is a drift toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at about 3 kt. This motion is likely due to the depression being caught within weak steering currents between a mid-level low west of the Baja California peninsula and troughing extending across Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the western United States should gradually cause the system to move faster toward the northwest during the next 2 to 3 days, bringing it very close to Baja California Sur in about 48 hours. Of the track models, the GFS and COAMPS-TC models are the solutions which bring the cyclone's center closest to Baja California Sur, while the ECMWF and UKMET models have the farther-offshore tracks. The new NHC track forecast splits the difference among these solutions and is a little east of the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to account for recent short-term motions. After 36 hours, it falls more or less in line with the previous prediction and is very close to the consensus aids, HWRF, and HMON. There are counteracting factors at play regarding the depression's future intensity. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be low, the GFS suggests that moderate to strong mid-level shear could develop below the outflow level during the next 24-48 hours. Sea surface temperatures will be plenty warm for strengthening during the next 48 hours, yet upper-level divergence is not expected to be ideal. Since the system's circulation appears to be improving, steady strengthening is forecast during the first 48 hours, and the depression could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes the Baja California peninsula. This forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope, close to the GFS, HWRF, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA solutions. The cyclone will be moving over colder waters in 2-3 days, which should cause quick weakening and a degeneration to remnant low status by day 4. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, and it could become a short-lived hurricane while it passes just to the southwest of southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday and Friday. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for southern portions of Baja California Sur, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of the depression. 2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are possible across southern portions of Baja California Sur Thursday through Friday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.5N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 22.3N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.9N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 24.1N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 23.6N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-08 10:49:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC WED SEP 08 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 26(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 22(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 1 16(17) 32(49) 3(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) 1(18) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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