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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics

2021-09-08 07:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 05:41:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 03:29:00 GMT

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-09-08 07:07:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 080507 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. Disorganized cloudiness and a few thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move northeastward over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico later today. Upper-level winds could become slightly more favorable to support some tropical or subtropical development as the system nears the northern Gulf coast tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia through Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2021-09-08 07:05:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 080505 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 7 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, located about 350 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the weekend a couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for some development of this system early next week while it moves west-northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are issued under WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics

2021-09-08 04:45:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 02:45:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 02:45:03 GMT

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-09-08 04:43:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080243 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Tue Sep 07 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has changed little in organization during the past several hours. While the system is producing good convective banding in the eastern semicircle, the convection near the center is currently poorly organized, and there is no evidence that the inner core has consolidated. Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the previous advisory. A combination of conventional and 37 GHz microwave satellite imagery suggests that the center is farther east than previously thought, so the new initial position is about a half degree east of the previous advisory position. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/5. A large mid-level anticyclone is located over the southwestern United States with a ridge extending southeastward across Mexico. The anticyclone should shift a little eastward during the next few days, with the ridge extending southward across Mexico. This evolution should steer the tropical cyclone generally northwestward for the next several days, followed by a more westward motion as the cyclone weakens over cooler water and is steered by low-level easterly flow. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is near the consensus models. However, the more eastward initial position required an eastward shift to the forecast track. It should be noted that some erratic motion is possible until the cyclone develops a better-defined inner core. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening until the system reaches the 26-deg-C SST isotherm in 60-72 h, with the main restraining factor being the current lack of internal organization. The intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in about 48 h. Steady to rapid weakening is expected after 60-72 h due to the cooler water and dry air entrainment. The more easterly initial position and the new forecast track require a Tropical Storm Watch for portions of Baja California Sur at this time. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.2N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 18.6N 107.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 19.4N 108.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 20.4N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 23.7N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 24.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

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